Fourth and Inches

Trade away

Players whose redraft value is running ahead of what they are worth to keep — sell into the window rather than out of it.

Dynasty value ages this season’s projection over six seasons on a measuredage curve, regresses his rate and availability toward the mean as the horizon lengthens, and discounts each year by the measured chance the player is still fantasy-relevant. All come from nflverse 2012–2025: production is estimated with player fixed effects, so each man is compared against his own career rather than against whoever else happens to be that age. Ages marked * are assumed.

Shown when dynasty rank trails overall redraft rank by 8 spots or more, restricted to players still above replacement and ordered by current redraft standing. Almost all of this is age, so read it as a timing signal rather than a judgement — a 30-year-old having a great season is here precisely because he is having one.

#	Player	Pos	Age	2026 VOR	Dynasty value	vs redraft
17	Christian McCaffreySF	RB	30	153	335	−14
25	Jonathan TaylorIND	RB	27	116	280	−16
34	Josh JacobsGB	RB	28	107	246	−20
29	James CookBUF	RB	26	103	260	−13
41	Saquon BarkleyPHI	RB	29	100	219	−23
33	Chase BrownCIN	RB	26	98	246	−12
49	Derrick HenryBAL	RB	32	94	197	−26
38	CeeDee LambDAL	WR	27	82	228	−11
39	Justin JeffersonMIN	WR	27	81	225	−11
45	A.J. BrownNE	WR	29	79	203	−15
53	Travis EtienneNO	RB	27	77	184	−22
54	D'Andre SwiftCHI	RB	27	76	183	−21
56	Chuba HubbardCAR	RB	27	75	182	−20
46	Chris OlaveNO	WR	26	72	202	−9
59	Javonte WilliamsDAL	RB	26	71	180	−21
50	Garrett WilsonNYJ	WR	26	69	193	−10
68	Rhamondre StevensonNE	RB	28	69	157	−27
78	David MontgomeryHOU	RB	29	60	132	−32
63	Jayden DanielsWAS	QB	25	59	172	−16
62	Brock PurdySF	QB	26	58	173	−14
76	Jaylen WarrenPIT	RB	27	58	138	−26
70	Jaylen WaddleDEN	WR	27	57	153	−19
71	Tee HigginsCIN	WR	27	56	151	−19
74	Christian WatsonGB	WR	27	54	148	−20
86	Aaron JonesMIN	RB	31	52	112	−30
82	J.K. DobbinsDEN	RB	27	49	121	−24
87	Mike EvansSF	WR	32	49	111	−28
80	DeVonta SmithPHI	WR	27	48	124	−20
69	Zay FlowersBAL	WR	25	47	155	−8
91	Davante AdamsLA	WR	33	47	103	−29
73	Jameson WilliamsDET	WR	25	45	149	−9
92	Tony PollardTEN	RB	29	45	98	−27
75	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	WR	25	44	144	−8
98	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	WR	30	37	87	−20
103	Jakobi MeyersJAX	WR	29	36	85	−24
101	DK MetcalfPIT	WR	28	35	86	−20
114	DJ MooreBUF	WR	29	31	71	−30
99	Travis KelceKC	TE	36	31	87	−14
116	Courtland SuttonDEN	WR	30	30	66	−30
126	Terry McLaurinWAS	WR	30	26	57	−35
122	Jayden ReedGB	WR	26	26	61	−29
127	Rico DowdlePIT	RB	28	25	57	−33
125	Tank DellHOU	WR	26	23	59	−29
111	Trevor LawrenceJAX	QB	26	21	76	−14
119	Pat FreiermuthPIT	TE	27	19	64	−16
150	Stefon DiggsWAS	WR	32	18	37	−46
115	Bo NixDEN	QB	26	17	68	−10
143	Kenny GainwellTB	RB	27	17	40	−37
152	Deebo Samuel Sr.SF	WR	30	17	36	−45
153	Michael PittmanPIT	WR	28	17	36	−45
124	Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS	RB	25	15	59	−14
134	Tre TuckerLV	WR	25	13	46	−22
165	Jauan JenningsMIN	WR	29	13	26	−51
133	Dalton KincaidBUF	TE	26	12	46	−17
144	Josh DownsIND	WR	25	11	40	−26
167	Isiah PachecoDET	RB	27	11	25	−47
173	Romeo DoubsNE	WR	26	9	20	−51
175	Michael WilsonARI	WR	26	9	19	−51
176	Khalil ShakirBUF	WR	26	8	19	−51
141	Tyler ShoughNO	QB	26	8	41	−15
178	Rachaad WhiteWAS	RB	27	8	18	−51
168	Jake FergusonDAL	TE	27	7	25	−40
142	Jalen CokerCAR	WR	24	7	40	−13
213	Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX	RB	26	4	9	−77
151	Juwan JohnsonNO	TE	29	3	36	−13
225	Jalen NailorLV	WR	27	1	7	−85
226	Rashid ShaheedSEA	WR	27	1	7	−85
223	Greg DulcichMIA	TE	26	0	7	−81