Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Jonathan Taylor

IND

RB6 · overall #9 · tier 2 · age 27

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Projected points

207

15.5/gm

Value over replacement

116

repl 110

Range

166–248

sd 41

Week

12.6

vs BAL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.3
Carries / game
17.1
Receptions / game
2.5
Rec yards / game
19
Rush yards / game
79
Rush TD / game
0.68
Rec TD / game
0.07
Total TD / game
0.76
Games projected
13.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
19.5
Games of history
52
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.78
OL pass protection
+0.85
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
1
Effective contributors
1.32
Top player's share
87%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.11

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BAL,KC,HOU
Window matchup
-0.81
Opponents after
WAS,PIT,TEN
After matchup
+0.36
Flip edge
-1.18
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.30

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

339.3

Per game

19.96

17-gm pace

339

Best / worst

48.1 / 4.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
111.31871033270
228.525165022501
331.317102343160
412.11776055200
530.11766343200
621.721123144140
732.71694333380
836.412153222211
96.71445022120
1048.132244333420
127.6165803280
1313.62185053360
1411.4217410000
1511.62587043140
1615.41646133330
1715.92170163140
184.91426022130