Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Saquon Barkley

PHI

RB7 · overall #18 · tier 2 · age 29

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Projected points

206

13.3/gm

Value over replacement

100

repl 110

Range

162–250

sd 44

Week

14.7

vs WAS

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.3
Carries / game
14.6
Receptions / game
2.5
Rec yards / game
18
Rush yards / game
69
Rush TD / game
0.53
Rec TD / game
0.09
Total TD / game
0.63
Games projected
15.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.1
Games of history
62
Age multiplier
0.895
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
61.3
Projected pass rate
53%
OL run block
+1.42
OL pass protection
+1.23
OL continuity
93%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.89
Scheme creativity
+0.20
Play action / motion
23% / 46%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
14
Effective contributors
1.61
Top player's share
77%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.31

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
sell high
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
WAS,TEN,CHI
Window matchup
+0.39
Opponents after
LA,JAX,CAR
After matchup
+0.01
Flip edge
+0.38
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.25

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

213.8

Per game

13.36

17-gm pace

227

Best / worst

31.4 / 4.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
116.41860154240
216.4228812260
37.5184605490
415.41943144310
516.3630033581
67.7125803290
74.71844011-20
831.414150154241
1011.62260033410
119.5268302170
128.91022087520
135.6135602000
1418.22012212000
1516.22278132140
1621.22113212000
176.8196800000