Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Davante Adams

LA

WR21 · overall #62 · tier 6 · age 33

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Projected points

150

10.5/gm

Value over replacement

47

repl 115

Range

83–217

sd 67

Week

9.6

vs SF

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
7.1
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
4.2
Rec yards / game
56
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.52
Total TD / game
0.52
Games projected
14.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
16.9
Games of history
62
Age multiplier
0.750
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.6
Projected plays / game
62.0
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.83
OL pass protection
+0.80
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.62
Scheme creativity
+1.30
Play action / motion
32% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
61
Effective contributors
3.17
Top player's share
45%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.74

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
SF,NYG,DEN
Window matchup
+0.12
Opponents after
PHI,BUF,ARI
After matchup
+0.33
Flip edge
-0.20
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.19

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

14

Points

192.9

Per game

13.78

17-gm pace

234

Best / worst

24.0 / 4.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
17.18451000
219.6136106100
313.18356100
413.66456100
511.311588000
65.99439000
724.08535300
920.57560200
1016.78677100
116.6811100
1220.78562200
1319.85458200
144.96429000
159.19471000