Josh Downs
INDWR53 · overall #118 · tier 9 · age 25
Projected points
119
8.1/gm
Value over replacement
10
repl 119
Range
77–160
sd 42
Week
9.0
@ WAS
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-08-22
RE-STATED 22 Aug. The claim is unchanged and is the 6 Aug one: WR49 (ADP 49, ECR 42). What changed is that the row no longer delivered it. An override writes an ABSOLUTE season total onto a board that rebuilds four times a day, so the RANK it buys drifts as the field moves around it and nothing re-derives it -- this one had drifted to WR56 against its stated WR49. 118.5 is the total that lands WR49 on the 22 Aug board, solved against the other WRs jointly (six other overrides were lifted the same day, which moved the pool). IT WILL DRIFT AGAIN. fng.board_audit now parses the rank out of this reason and warns on every rebuild when the board stops matching it, which is the only reason re-pricing is worth doing rather than lifting the row.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 6.1
- Carries / game
- 0.1
- Receptions / game
- 3.9
- Rec yards / game
- 47
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.25
- Total TD / game
- 0.25
- Games projected
- 14.6
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 9.9
- Games of history
- 47
- Age multiplier
- 1.026
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.8
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- +0.69
- OL pass protection
- +0.76
- OL continuity
- 81%
- 2TE rate
- 35%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 48%
- Run friendly
- +0.12
- Scheme creativity
- +0.53
- Play action / motion
- 31% / 50%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 3.54
- Top player's share
- 36%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy now, flip wk7
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- WAS,PIT,TEN
- Window matchup
- +0.69
- Opponents after
- MIN,JAX,DAL
- After matchup
- +0.26
- Flip edge
- +0.43
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 13
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.35
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
16
Points
109.4
Per game
6.84
17-gm pace
116
Best / worst
14.7 / 0.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.2 | WR89 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | WR47 | 8 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | WR62 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | WR63 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 8.4 | WR40 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 13.2 | WR16 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 11.4 | WR20 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 14.7 | WR14 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 0.8 | WR90 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 2.0 | WR76 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 5.4 | WR49 | 6 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 4.3 | WR53 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 8.8 | WR35 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 9.3 | WR31 | 9 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | 4.4 | WR60 | 5 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 7.6 | WR29 | 4 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 1 | -5 |