Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Josh Downs

IND

WR49 · overall #118 · tier 9 · age 25

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Projected points

114

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

11

repl 115

Range

72–156

sd 42

Week

7.1

vs BAL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.9
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
3.8
Rec yards / game
46
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.24
Total TD / game
0.24
Games projected
14.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.9
Games of history
47
Age multiplier
1.026
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.78
OL pass protection
+0.85
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.54
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BAL,KC,HOU
Window matchup
-0.71
Opponents after
WAS,PIT,TEN
After matchup
+0.76
Flip edge
-1.46
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.34

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

109.4

Per game

6.84

17-gm pace

116

Best / worst

14.7 / 0.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
12.23212000
28.18651000
34.43234000
44.45424000
58.48654000
613.27642100
811.43339100
914.79657100
100.8213000
122.06210000
135.46244000
144.35423000
158.85313100
169.39565013
174.45234000
187.6446101-5