Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Jaylen Warren

PIT

RB27 · overall #50 · tier 6 · age 27

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Projected points

158

10.8/gm

Value over replacement

58

repl 110

Range

117–199

sd 41

Week

10.1

vs ATL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.4
Carries / game
12.4
Receptions / game
2.8
Rec yards / game
20
Rush yards / game
54
Rush TD / game
0.23
Rec TD / game
0.04
Total TD / game
0.27
Games projected
14.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.6
Games of history
64
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
61.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.48
OL pass protection
+0.07
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.86
Scheme creativity
-0.30
Play action / motion
21% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
86
Effective contributors
2.14
Top player's share
60%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.91

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
ATL,NE,CIN
Window matchup
+0.19
Opponents after
CLE,IND,TB
After matchup
-0.03
Flip edge
+0.22
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.17

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

197.1

Per game

12.32

17-gm pace

209

Best / worst

28.1 / 6.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
112.91137022221
215.41448044860
310.61847065340
67.31152022110
717.816127054310
88.31362032110
915.91631222-20
1010.11470022210
117.7106202250
1212.8186810000
1311.4103514290
1413.7813033491
156.31233033150
1628.11414322280
176.4126400000
1812.41466055330