Jake Ferguson

DAL

TE14 · overall #122 · tier 3 · age 27

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Projected points

111

7.5/gm

Value over replacement

repl 112

Range

83–140

sd 29

Week

8.2

@ HOU

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 5.7
Carries / game: 0.0
Receptions / game: 4.2
Rec yards / game: 37
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.28
Total TD / game: 0.28
Games projected: 14.8
Observed pts/gm (history): 9.6
Games of history: 59
Age multiplier: 1.010
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 31.0
Projected plays / game: 64.1
Projected pass rate: 58%
OL run block: +0.24
OL pass protection: +0.09
OL continuity: 86%
2TE rate: 20%
3WR rate: 72%
1st-down pass rate: 49%
Run friendly: -0.93
Scheme creativity: -0.33
Play action / motion: 22% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: clear lead
Ambiguity score: 7
Effective contributors: 1.72
Top player's share: 74%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.24

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: hold
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: HOU,TB,GB
Window matchup: +0.18
Opponents after: PHI,ARI,IND
After matchup: +0.33
Flip edge: -0.14
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 14
Playoff schedule (15-17): +0.27

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

147.1

Per game

8.65

17-gm pace

147

Best / worst

20.4 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	4.8	TE24	6	5	23	0
2	12.3	TE4	12	9	78	0
3	14.7	TE4	14	13	82	0
4	13.5	TE5	7	7	40	1
5	20.4	TE2	9	7	49	2
6	10.8	TE10	3	3	33	1
7	18.4	TE4	7	7	29	2
8	0.0	TE48	1	0	0	0
9	5.5	TE26	7	5	50	0
11	9.6	TE7	5	4	16	1
12	8.6	TE9	6	5	60	0
13	6.1	TE20	6	5	36	0
14	8.3	TE12	7	5	58	0
15	2.6	TE40	4	2	16	0
16	3.4	TE34	4	3	19	0
17	7.1	TE18	2	1	6	1
18	1.0	TE55	2	1	5	0