Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Chris Godwin Jr.

TB

WR40 · overall #78 · tier 8 · age 30

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Projected points

123

10.2/gm

Value over replacement

37

repl 115

Range

76–170

sd 47

Week

7.8

@ CIN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
7.5
Carries / game
0.1
Receptions / game
5.0
Rec yards / game
60
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.30
Total TD / game
0.30
Games projected
12.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.9
Games of history
48
Age multiplier
0.845
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.6
Projected plays / game
62.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.88
OL pass protection
+1.32
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
22%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
44%
Run friendly
+0.57
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
17% / 58%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
90
Effective contributors
4.77
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
2.00

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CIN,CLE,MIN
Window matchup
-0.25
Opponents after
GB,DAL,PIT
After matchup
+0.46
Flip edge
-0.71
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.62

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

9

Points

66.5

Per game

7.39

17-gm pace

126

Best / worst

20.3 / 1.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
44.110326000
54.14326000
121.9429000
139.35378000
148.08555000
1512.05420100
165.56530000
1720.387108100
181.3118000