Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Mark Andrews

BAL

TE12 · overall #111 · tier 4 · age 30

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Projected points

114

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

15

repl 111

Range

57–171

sd 57

Week

8.0

@ IND

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
4.9
Carries / game
0.3
Receptions / game
3.5
Rec yards / game
37
Rush yards / game
1
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.38
Total TD / game
0.40
Games projected
14.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
10.0
Games of history
59
Age multiplier
0.911
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.9
Projected plays / game
60.0
Projected pass rate
53%
OL run block
+0.40
OL pass protection
-0.27
OL continuity
58%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
34%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.68
Scheme creativity
+0.62
Play action / motion
23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
91
Effective contributors
2.35
Top player's share
57%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.01

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
IND,NO,DAL
Window matchup
+0.98
Opponents after
TEN,ATL,CLE
After matchup
-0.19
Flip edge
+1.16
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.13

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

107.0

Per game

6.29

17-gm pace

107

Best / worst

24.1 / 0.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
11.01150
20.93120
324.166912
46.587300
53.232220
64.664240
84.933340
915.632222
108.953141
1114.253320
121.63190
136.764470
141.45190
152.832180
163.432210
174.844280
182.432140