Kenneth Walker III
KCRB12 · overall #16 · tier 3 · age 25
Projected points
198
13.7/gm
Value over replacement
93
repl 116
Range
147–250
sd 52
Week
21.4
@ LV
The take
written by hand
New team, and I'm projecting him as the lead back on it: 17.2 carries a game at his own 4.28 a carry. That is a bet on role, not on efficiency.
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-03
Workload set to a lead-back 17.5 carries / 3.4 targets at his own efficiency (4.28 ypc, 0.823 catch rate), giving 198.3 -- level with ECR RB11 and ADP Re-read 3 Sep: carries VERIFY at 17.82 against the stated 17.5, but TARGETS have drifted to 2.98 against the stated 3.4, about 12% under. The workload spec was the claim and its larger half holds; recorded rather than re-priced, since 0.4 targets a game is inside what a rebuild moves.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 3.0
- Carries / game
- 17.7
- Receptions / game
- 2.5
- Rec yards / game
- 18
- Rush yards / game
- 75
- Rush TD / game
- 0.40
- Rec TD / game
- 0.02
- Total TD / game
- 0.43
- Games projected
- 14.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 12.7
- Games of history
- 58
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 32.7
- Projected plays / game
- 63.2
- Projected pass rate
- 59%
- OL run block
- +0.13
- OL pass protection
- -0.04
- OL continuity
- 65%
- 2TE rate
- 41%
- 3WR rate
- 56%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 54%
- Run friendly
- -1.61
- Scheme creativity
- +0.04
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 55%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 50
- Effective contributors
- 2.66
- Top player's share
- 49%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.56
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- sell high
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- LV,LAC
- Window matchup
- +0.58
- Opponents after
- SEA,DEN,NYJ
- After matchup
- -0.29
- Flip edge
- +0.87
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 5
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.23
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
17
Points
176.4
Per game
10.38
17-gm pace
176
Best / worst
23.9 / 2.4
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.9 | RB41 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 | 18.3 | RB7 | 13 | 105 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 3 | 17.5 | RB10 | 16 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| 4 | 11.5 | RB26 | 19 | 81 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| 5 | 9.1 | RB26 | 10 | 86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 4.2 | RB40 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 7 | 6.6 | RB28 | 17 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 7.1 | RB28 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| 10 | 7.5 | RB36 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | 18.6 | RB10 | 16 | 67 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| 12 | 11.6 | RB17 | 11 | 71 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| 13 | 8.9 | RB35 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| 14 | 3.3 | RB49 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | 2.4 | RB57 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | 23.9 | RB7 | 11 | 100 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| 17 | 6.7 | RB30 | 15 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 | 15.3 | RB11 | 16 | 97 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |