Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Christian McCaffrey

SF

RB3 · overall #3 · tier 1 · age 30

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Projected points

242

18.7/gm

Value over replacement

153

repl 110

Range

203–281

sd 39

Week

14.8

@ LA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.9
Carries / game
16.7
Receptions / game
4.7
Rec yards / game
37
Rush yards / game
72
Rush TD / game
0.50
Rec TD / game
0.26
Total TD / game
0.76
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
23.5
Games of history
54
Age multiplier
0.876
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.5
Projected plays / game
59.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+0.00
OL pass protection
-0.53
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
17%
3WR rate
45%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.62
Scheme creativity
+0.36
Play action / motion
23% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
5
Effective contributors
1.54
Top player's share
77%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.18

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LA,MIA,ARI
Window matchup
+1.34
Opponents after
DEN,SEA,WAS
After matchup
-0.41
Flip edge
+1.75
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-1.00

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

365.6

Per game

21.51

17-gm pace

366

Best / worst

35.6 / 8.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
118.722690109730
219.71355076521
319.0175201510880
423.117490116921
523.92257098821
620.61754187570
735.624129287720
88.3825063430
931.828106165671
1013.612300108660
1132.61381265401
1223.72489177530
1315.42053144210
1515.22273111140
1629.621117086292
1726.123140164410
188.7823076340