Josh Jacobs
GBRB43 · overall #137 · tier 8 · age 28
Projected points
45
7.5/gm
Value over replacement
1
repl 116
Range
0–102
sd 57
Week
1.1
@ TB
The take
written by hand
I'm a long way ahead of consensus RB20 and I'll defend it. 16.5 carries a game is a bell-cow number, and even with the age curve at 0.92 and a questionable tag, that volume plays.
Why this ranking
hand-set 2026-09-01
HE IS SUSPENDED, NOT HURT, and for an unknown length -- Matt, 1 Sep. Sleeper's injury_body_part says Groin and that is what the first version of this row argued from; it is stale and it was the wrong premise. The right one is that Green Bay has him DEPTH 4 behind Lloyd, Brooks and Johnson while he serves a ban nobody has put a number on. WRITTEN AS A GAMES CLAIM, because that is what a suspension is: 6.0 games, and 7.5/g when he plays, which is a committee back rather than the bell cow he was. The first version spent the whole cut on RATE -- 11.0 games at 6.36/g -- which claims he plays most of the season BELOW replacement, and that is not a suspension, it is a different and false story. Note RB43 is about the floor the board can give a suspended man who returns at all: VOR credits the games he does play and streams the rest, so pricing him lower would require claiming he never comes back.
This is a view, not a correction — the model said something different and was overruled. See how it works.
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 1.6
- Carries / game
- 8.7
- Receptions / game
- 1.3
- Rec yards / game
- 10
- Rush yards / game
- 35
- Rush TD / game
- 0.29
- Rec TD / game
- 0.02
- Total TD / game
- 0.31
- Games projected
- 6.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 16.4
- Games of history
- 62
- Age multiplier
- 0.915
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 35.1
- Projected plays / game
- 60.5
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- -0.62
- OL pass protection
- -0.44
- OL continuity
- 60%
- 2TE rate
- 32%
- 3WR rate
- 60%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 41%
- Run friendly
- +0.91
- Scheme creativity
- +0.54
- Play action / motion
- 23% / 59%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 35
- Effective contributors
- 2.10
- Top player's share
- 61%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.37
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 4-6
- Window opponents
- TB,CHI,DAL
- Window matchup
- +0.09
- Opponents after
- DET,CAR,NE
- After matchup
- -0.05
- Flip edge
- +0.14
- Buy basis
- recent form
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.21
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
15
Points
219.1
Per game
14.61
17-gm pace
248
Best / worst
29.7 / 0.8
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Rank | Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13.5 | RB14 | 19 | 66 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 2 | 14.4 | RB17 | 23 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | RB23 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| 4 | 29.7 | RB2 | 22 | 86 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| 6 | 29.5 | RB4 | 18 | 93 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| 7 | 18.3 | RB7 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | 12.0 | RB19 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| 9 | 18.0 | RB4 | 17 | 87 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| 10 | 17.2 | RB9 | 21 | 74 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| 11 | 4.0 | RB46 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 9.6 | RB31 | 17 | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 | 16.2 | RB11 | 20 | 86 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 | 22.2 | RB6 | 12 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| 16 | 3.8 | RB54 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 | 0.8 | RB68 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |