Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Aaron Jones

MIN

RB30 · overall #56 · tier 7 · age 31

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Projected points

145

10.7/gm

Value over replacement

52

repl 110

Range

107–183

sd 38

Week

9.1

vs GB

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.4
Carries / game
12.7
Receptions / game
2.7
Rec yards / game
20
Rush yards / game
55
Rush TD / game
0.21
Rec TD / game
0.11
Total TD / game
0.32
Games projected
13.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.0
Games of history
57
Age multiplier
0.857
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.1
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.03
OL pass protection
+0.12
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
27%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.77
Scheme creativity
+0.21
Play action / motion
26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
51
Effective contributors
2.70
Top player's share
46%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.58

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
GB,CHI,TB
Window matchup
-0.34
Opponents after
MIA,NO
After matchup
+0.52
Flip edge
-0.86
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.69

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

12

Points

104.7

Per game

8.72

17-gm pace

148

Best / worst

14.4 / 2.3

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
114.2823033441
22.352301000
84.0515042150
910.8978022200
1014.4947163220
119.61670063110
127.2941043160
132.563044220
147.6147601000
158.01234033310
1610.3218503280
1713.81853143100