Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

TE

Dallas Goedert

PHI

TE17 · overall #113 · tier 5 · age 31

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Projected points

104

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

13

repl 111

Range

74–133

sd 30

Week

7.4

vs WAS

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.2
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.8
Rec yards / game
41
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.36
Total TD / game
0.36
Games projected
13.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.3
Games of history
51
Age multiplier
0.888
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
61.3
Projected pass rate
53%
OL run block
+1.42
OL pass protection
+1.23
OL continuity
93%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.89
Scheme creativity
+0.20
Play action / motion
23% / 46%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
clear lead
Ambiguity score
10
Effective contributors
1.55
Top player's share
79%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.28

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
sell high
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
WAS,TEN,CHI
Window matchup
+0.64
Opponents after
LA,JAX,CAR
After matchup
+0.01
Flip edge
+0.63
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.03

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

155.1

Per game

10.34

17-gm pace

176

Best / worst

22.0 / 3.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
17.977440
39.821331
417.744372
59.493191
621.51191101
73.333180
816.333282
106.364430
113.452240
123.022200
133.742270
1411.8108780
1522.076702
1610.733321
178.36381