Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Courtland Sutton

DEN

WR33 · overall #86 · tier 7 · age 30

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Projected points

138

9.1/gm

Value over replacement

30

repl 115

Range

91–185

sd 47

Week

7.4

@ KC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.3
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.8
Rec yards / game
52
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.38
Total TD / game
0.38
Games projected
15.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
13.2
Games of history
64
Age multiplier
0.845
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.2
Projected plays / game
62.2
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+1.24
OL pass protection
+1.55
OL continuity
98%
2TE rate
23%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.38
Scheme creativity
+0.14
Play action / motion
25% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.92
Top player's share
35%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
KC,JAX,LA
Window matchup
-0.50
Opponents after
SF,LAC,SEA
After matchup
-0.43
Flip edge
-0.07
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.50

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

182.7

Per game

10.75

17-gm pace

183

Best / worst

20.8 / 1.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
115.19661100
21.1416000
320.886118100
416.66581100
513.910899000
62.23117000
713.710687000
88.76467000
99.56130100
103.94324000
117.98459000
1314.76562100
149.210662000
1520.8107113100
1617.612686100
176.010440000
181.0215000