Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

David Montgomery

HOU

RB28 · overall #46 · tier 6 · age 29

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Projected points

158

11.0/gm

Value over replacement

60

repl 110

Range

108–208

sd 50

Week

10.0

vs BUF

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
2.7
Carries / game
12.4
Receptions / game
2.2
Rec yards / game
17
Rush yards / game
50
Rush TD / game
0.56
Rec TD / game
0.02
Total TD / game
0.58
Games projected
14.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.9
Games of history
61
Age multiplier
0.895
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.9
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-1.37
OL pass protection
-1.17
OL continuity
70%
2TE rate
20%
3WR rate
76%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.37
Scheme creativity
-0.30
Play action / motion
23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
54
Effective contributors
2.86
Top player's share
49%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.63

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BUF,CIN,IND
Window matchup
+0.55
Opponents after
DAL,TEN,JAX
After matchup
+0.04
Flip edge
+0.51
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.62

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

154.9

Per game

9.11

17-gm pace

155

Best / worst

28.9 / 1.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
16.31125044180
212.6115711140
328.912151211130
41.291201000
517.7186511160
67.1424022370
74.91321032180
910.01140142100
109.6157101100
114.2627011100
125.2518033190
1311.8832122160
1413.8660111130
159.273211000
161.441400000
175.01025022150
186.0842011130