Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

RB

Kenny Gainwell

TB

RB33 · overall #106 · tier 7 · age 27

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Projected points

121

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

17

repl 110

Range

61–181

sd 60

Week

8.1

@ CIN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
3.2
Carries / game
6.8
Receptions / game
2.5
Rec yards / game
18
Rush yards / game
31
Rush TD / game
0.22
Rec TD / game
0.06
Total TD / game
0.28
Games projected
15.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
9.1
Games of history
67
Age multiplier
0.934
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.6
Projected plays / game
62.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+0.88
OL pass protection
+1.32
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
22%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
44%
Run friendly
+0.57
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
17% / 58%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
62
Effective contributors
2.89
Top player's share
43%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.77

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CIN,CLE,MIN
Window matchup
+0.01
Opponents after
GB,DAL,PIT
After matchup
+0.20
Flip edge
-0.20
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.28

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

184.8

Per game

10.87

17-gm pace

185

Best / worst

28.4 / 1.4

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsAttRu YdsRu TDTgtRecRe YdsRe TD
13.871904340
25.1520053160
39.1416111100
428.41999266350
66.6622066140
72.531402210
82.553102240
95.43-1054350
101.40003240
1126.0924087812
1215.21092066300
135.5520032250
1413.2415176270
1516.11380077460
1621.3950075781
175.3726043120
1817.4510198640