Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

WR

Michael Pittman

PIT

WR47 · overall #110 · tier 9 · age 28

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Projected points

124

8.3/gm

Value over replacement

12

repl 119

Range

43–205

sd 81

Week

5.3

@ CLE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.4
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
4.2
Rec yards / game
46
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.26
Total TD / game
0.26
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.4
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
0.908
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
61.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.51
OL pass protection
+0.02
OL continuity
65%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.86
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
21% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach, committee
Ambiguity score
98
Effective contributors
3.82
Top player's share
42%
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
2.55

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
CLE,IND,TB
Window matchup
+0.09
Opponents after
NO,CLE
After matchup
+0.25
Flip edge
-0.16
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.01

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

162.4

Per game

9.55

17-gm pace

162

Best / worst

19.5 / 1.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsRankTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
117.0WR88680100
26.0WR665440000
316.3WR116673100
412.6WR2210541100
512.4WR216539100
63.0WR743220000
717.3WR139758100
819.5WR39895100
916.0WR11129115000
102.9WR632219000
1211.2WR248527100
131.8WR864113000
1412.4WR1812979000
154.1WR685326000
165.2WR605432000
172.6WR803216000
182.1WR774211000