Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Deebo Samuel Sr.

SF

WR45 · overall #107 · tier 8 · age 30

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Projected points

119

8.4/gm

Value over replacement

17

repl 115

Range

51–187

sd 68

Week

7.6

@ LA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.3
Carries / game
1.4
Receptions / game
3.4
Rec yards / game
41
Rush yards / game
7
Rush TD / game
0.08
Rec TD / game
0.29
Total TD / game
0.36
Games projected
14.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.5
Games of history
59
Age multiplier
0.845
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.5
Projected plays / game
59.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+0.00
OL pass protection
-0.53
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
17%
3WR rate
45%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
+0.62
Scheme creativity
+0.36
Play action / motion
23% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.15
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LA,MIA,ARI
Window matchup
+1.33
Opponents after
DEN,SEA,WAS
After matchup
-0.47
Flip edge
+1.80
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-1.27

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

152.2

Per game

9.51

17-gm pace

162

Best / worst

19.6 / 2.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
119.1107770119
213.98744100
33.932110318
417.16672139
519.611896100
63.4541501-1
82.76311011
96.96541013
1010.95429100
1117.28774113
138.6756402-3
144.76427000
155.85343000
165.04335000
1710.342680225
183.15220021