Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Jayden Reed

GB

WR46 · overall #93 · tier 8 · age 26

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Projected points

118

9.2/gm

Value over replacement

26

repl 115

Range

70–167

sd 48

Week

6.7

@ MIN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.2
Carries / game
0.8
Receptions / game
3.5
Rec yards / game
46
Rush yards / game
5
Rush TD / game
0.04
Rec TD / game
0.35
Total TD / game
0.39
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.5
Games of history
38
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.4
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.65
OL pass protection
-0.47
OL continuity
64%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.90
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
5.34
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
MIN,NYJ,ATL
Window matchup
+0.38
Opponents after
TB,CHI,DAL
After matchup
+0.40
Flip edge
-0.02
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.10

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

5

Points

39.0

Per game

7.80

17-gm pace

133

Best / worst

12.0 / 5.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
112.05345100
147.344310222
158.06555000
165.63335016
176.14441000