WR
A.J. Brown
NEWR7 · overall #30 · tier 2 · age 29
Projected points
190
12.3/gm
Value over replacement
79
repl 115
Range
114–267
sd 77
Week
10.7
@ SEA
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Targets / game
- 8.3
- Carries / game
- 0.0
- Receptions / game
- 5.3
- Rec yards / game
- 71
- Rush yards / game
- 0
- Rush TD / game
- 0.00
- Rec TD / game
- 0.50
- Total TD / game
- 0.50
- Games projected
- 15.5
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 15.7
- Games of history
- 62
- Age multiplier
- 0.876
- Usage carryover
- 0.89
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.3
- Projected plays / game
- 59.9
- Projected pass rate
- 57%
- OL run block
- -0.47
- OL pass protection
- -0.48
- OL continuity
- 73%
- 2TE rate
- 31%
- 3WR rate
- 57%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 43%
- Run friendly
- +0.10
- Scheme creativity
- -0.59
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 48%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- committee
- Ambiguity score
- 75
- Effective contributors
- 4.15
- Top player's share
- 36%
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.85
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- SEA,PIT,JAX
- Window matchup
- -0.34
- Opponents after
- BUF,LV,NYJ
- After matchup
- +0.22
- Flip edge
- -0.56
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 11
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.58
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
15
Points
181.3
Per game
12.09
17-gm pace
205
Best / worst
30.2 / 1.3
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Tgt | Rec | Re Yds | Re TD | Att | Ru Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 19.9 | 10 | 6 | 109 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 6.8 | 8 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 11.0 | 9 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 26.1 | 6 | 4 | 121 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 2.3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 8.4 | 11 | 7 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 21.0 | 10 | 8 | 110 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 30.2 | 12 | 10 | 132 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 13.0 | 13 | 6 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 11.1 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | 14.0 | 12 | 9 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 9.3 | 7 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 |