Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Christian Watson

GB

WR27 · overall #54 · tier 6 · age 27

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Projected points

143

11.5/gm

Value over replacement

54

repl 115

Range

91–195

sd 52

Week

8.2

@ MIN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
6.9
Carries / game
0.3
Receptions / game
4.1
Rec yards / game
62
Rush yards / game
2
Rush TD / game
0.02
Rec TD / game
0.50
Total TD / game
0.53
Games projected
12.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
10.9
Games of history
47
Age multiplier
0.939
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.1
Projected plays / game
60.4
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
-0.65
OL pass protection
-0.47
OL continuity
64%
2TE rate
32%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
+0.90
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
23% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
5.34
Top player's share
30%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
MIN,NYJ,ATL
Window matchup
+0.38
Opponents after
TB,CHI,DAL
After matchup
+0.40
Flip edge
-0.02
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.10

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

10

Points

114.9

Per game

11.49

17-gm pace

195

Best / worst

22.9 / 2.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
810.54485000
96.84258000
105.54245000
1118.65446200
127.47549000
1316.310480113
1422.94489200
154.45329000
162.76217000
1719.865113100