Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Alec Pierce

IND

WR43 · overall #88 · tier 8 · age 26

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Projected points

121

9.4/gm

Value over replacement

28

repl 115

Range

66–176

sd 55

Week

0.0

vs BAL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.9
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
3.3
Rec yards / game
57
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.34
Total TD / game
0.34
Games projected
12.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
10.3
Games of history
64
Age multiplier
1.009
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.78
OL pass protection
+0.85
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
3.54
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BAL,KC,HOU
Window matchup
-0.71
Opponents after
WAS,PIT,TEN
After matchup
+0.76
Flip edge
-1.46
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.34

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

159.8

Per game

10.65

17-gm pace

181

Best / worst

27.2 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
14.13136000
28.85468000
38.75467000
65.84248000
712.310598000
87.95269000
914.5136115000
1016.47484100
123.12126000
1315.85478100
1410.58580000
152.11116000
1622.64486200
170.0500000
1827.274132200