Fourth and Inches

Mike Evans

WR25 · overall #59 · tier 6 · age 32

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Projected points

146

10.8/gm

Value over replacement

repl 115

Range

68–224

sd 78

Week

9.3

@ LA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Targets / game: 7.3
Carries / game: 0.0
Receptions / game: 4.4
Rec yards / game: 58
Rush yards / game: 0
Rush TD / game: 0.00
Rec TD / game: 0.58
Total TD / game: 0.58
Games projected: 13.5
Observed pts/gm (history): 14.3
Games of history: 54
Age multiplier: 0.782
Usage carryover: 0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 35.5
Projected plays / game: 59.4
Projected pass rate: 56%
OL run block: +0.00
OL pass protection: -0.53
OL continuity: 78%
2TE rate: 17%
3WR rate: 45%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: +0.62
Scheme creativity: +0.36
Play action / motion: 23% / 70%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: committee
Ambiguity score: 75
Effective contributors: 4.15
Top player's share: 36%
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks: 1-3
Window opponents: LA,MIA,ARI
Window matchup: +1.33
Opponents after: DEN,SEA,WAS
After matchup: -0.47
Flip edge: +1.80
Buy basis: season average
Bye week: 8
Playoff schedule (15-17): -1.27

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

69.8

Per game

8.73

17-gm pace

148

Best / worst

16.2 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Tgt	Rec	Re Yds	Re TD
1	7.6	8	5	51	0
2	8.1	11	5	56	0
3	11.3	9	4	33	1
7	0.0	4	0	0	0
15	16.2	12	6	132	0
16	11.6	9	5	31	1
17	10.6	7	3	31	1
18	4.4	2	2	34	0