Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Tee Higgins

CIN

WR18 · overall #52 · tier 5 · age 27

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Projected points

155

11.3/gm

Value over replacement

56

repl 115

Range

101–208

sd 53

Week

10.5

vs TB

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
7.3
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
4.5
Rec yards / game
57
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.00
Rec TD / game
0.57
Total TD / game
0.57
Games projected
13.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.6
Games of history
53
Age multiplier
0.939
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
60.9
Projected pass rate
60%
OL run block
-0.72
OL pass protection
-1.37
OL continuity
99%
2TE rate
40%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.75
Scheme creativity
-0.69
Play action / motion
17% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
52
Effective contributors
2.82
Top player's share
50%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.62

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
TB,HOU,PIT
Window matchup
+0.12
Opponents after
JAX,MIA
After matchup
+0.46
Flip edge
-0.34
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.27

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

182.1

Per game

12.14

17-gm pace

206

Best / worst

29.6 / 2.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
14.84333000
213.18356100
32.02115000
44.76332000
59.77322100
68.78562000
718.610696100
810.92144100
929.697121200
1113.88363100
125.66531000
1424.211692200
1612.83353100
177.95459000
1815.79667100