Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

WR

Stefon Diggs

WAS

WR47 · overall #104 · tier 8 · age 32

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Projected points

118

8.5/gm

Value over replacement

18

repl 115

Range

48–188

sd 70

Week

6.8

@ PHI

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Targets / game
5.9
Carries / game
0.0
Receptions / game
4.1
Rec yards / game
47
Rush yards / game
0
Rush TD / game
0.01
Rec TD / game
0.30
Total TD / game
0.31
Games projected
13.9
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.0
Games of history
58
Age multiplier
0.782
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.8
Projected plays / game
60.8
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
-0.49
OL pass protection
-0.83
OL continuity
84%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
67%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.20
Scheme creativity
-0.17
Play action / motion
20% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
committee
Ambiguity score
75
Effective contributors
4.70
Top player's share
36%
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
PHI,DAL,SEA
Window matchup
-0.24
Opponents after
IND,NYG,SF
After matchup
+0.14
Flip edge
-0.38
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.47

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

167.8

Per game

9.87

17-gm pace

168

Best / worst

19.6 / 3.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsTgtRecRe YdsRe TDAttRu Yds
18.77657000
25.25432000
33.83323000
413.176101000
519.61210146000
64.33328000
710.47769000
88.95314100
911.34338100
1013.18546100
1115.0119105000
123.03220000
134.14326000
154.14326000
1618.3109138000
1719.166101100
185.83343000