Week 4 projections
Deliberately untiered. Tiers say “these players are interchangeable for the season”, which is a draft-day judgement — week to week the whole point is that matchup separates them, so banding them back together would hide the signal.
| # | Player⇅ | Pos | Matchup | Proj▲ | If plays⇅ | Play%⇅ | Floor⇅ | Ceil⇅ | Season/G⇅ | Form/G⇅ | Using⇅ | Mult⇅ | DvP⇅ | Implied⇅ | Situation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dillon GabrielCLE | QB | vs PIT | 0.0 | 5.1 | IR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | – | 5.6 | 0.91 | +0.00 | 18.0 | new head coach |
| 2 | Jaxson DartNYG | QB | vs ARI | 0.0 | 7.0 | IR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.72g | 6.8 | 1.02 | +0.78 | 21.5 | new head coach |
| 3 | Brady CookMIA | QB | @ MIN | 0.5 | 2.4 | 21% | 0.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | – | 3.3 | 0.72 | -2.32 | 13.5 | new head coach, new team |
| 4 | Tanner McKeePHI | QB | vs LA | 0.6 | 3.7 | 16% | 1.4 | 6.0 | 3.9 | – | 3.9 | 0.94 | -0.36 | 20.3 | settled |
| 5 | Taylen GreenCLE | QB | vs PIT | 0.6 | 2.2 | 28% | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | – | 2.4 | 0.91 | +0.00 | 18.0 | rookie (pick 182) |
| 6 | Drew AllarPIT | QB | @ CLE | 0.6 | 2.3 | 28% | 0.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | – | 2.5 | 0.93 | -0.76 | 20.5 | rookie (pick 76) |
| 7 | Behren MortonNE | QB | @ BUF | 0.6 | 2.3 | 28% | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | – | 2.4 | 0.93 | -0.72 | 20.8 | rookie (pick 234) |
| 8 | Cole PaytonPHI | QB | vs LA | 0.6 | 2.3 | 28% | 0.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | – | 2.4 | 0.94 | -0.36 | 20.3 | rookie (pick 178) |
| 9 | Carson BeckARI | QB | @ NYG | 0.7 | 2.6 | 28% | 1.0 | 4.2 | 2.5 | – | 2.5 | 1.02 | +0.19 | 23.0 | rookie (pick 65) |
| 10 | Garrett NussmeierKC | QB | @ LV | 0.7 | 2.6 | 28% | 1.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | – | 2.4 | 1.08 | +0.15 | 26.0 | rookie (pick 249) |
| 11 | Kyle AllenBUF | QB | vs NE | 0.8 | 4.0 | 20% | 1.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | – | 3.5 | 1.12 | +0.27 | 27.8 | new team |
| 12 | Aidan O'ConnellLV | QB | vs KC | 0.8 | 4.7 | 18% | 1.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | – | 5.0 | 0.94 | -0.98 | 21.5 | new head coach |
| 13 | Chris OladokunKC | QB | @ LV | 0.9 | 4.5 | 20% | 1.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | – | 4.2 | 1.08 | +0.15 | 26.0 | settled |
| 14 | Trey LanceLAC | QB | @ SEA | 0.9 | 4.4 | 21% | 1.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | – | 5.3 | 0.82 | -1.88 | 17.8 | settled |
| 15 | Joe Milton IIIDAL | QB | @ HOU | 0.9 | 4.3 | 22% | 1.6 | 6.9 | 4.5 | – | 4.5 | 0.95 | -1.01 | 22.5 | settled |
| 16 | Sam EhlingerDEN | QB | @ SF | 0.9 | 4.2 | 23% | 1.6 | 6.7 | 4.3 | – | 4.3 | 0.97 | -0.25 | 21.8 | new team |
| 17 | Kedon SlovisGB | QB | @ TB | 0.9 | 3.6 | 26% | 1.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | – | 3.6 | 1.01 | +0.60 | 21.5 | new team |
| 18 | Athan KaliakmanisWAS | QB | vs IND | 0.9 | 2.5 | 39% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 2.4 | – | 2.4 | 1.01 | +0.47 | 22.0 | rookie (pick 223) |
| 19 | Adrian MartinezSF | QB | vs DEN | 1.0 | 3.8 | 25% | 1.4 | 6.2 | 3.7 | – | 3.7 | 1.04 | -0.17 | 24.8 | settled |
| 20 | Riley LeonardIND | QB | @ WAS | 1.0 | 4.8 | 21% | 1.8 | 7.8 | 4.3 | – | 4.3 | 1.13 | +1.45 | 25.5 | settled |
| 21 | Cade KlubnikNYJ | QB | @ CHI | 1.0 | 2.6 | 39% | 1.0 | 4.2 | 2.7 | – | 2.7 | 0.95 | +0.16 | 19.5 | rookie (pick 110) |
| 22 | Tyler HuntleyBAL | QB | vs TEN | 1.0 | 4.7 | 22% | 1.8 | 7.6 | 4.1 | – | 4.1 | 1.13 | +0.75 | 27.5 | new head coach |
| 23 | Jarrett StidhamDEN | QB | @ SF | 1.0 | 5.3 | 20% | 2.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | – | 5.5 | 0.97 | -0.25 | 21.8 | settled |
| 24 | Josh JohnsonCIN | QB | vs JAX | 1.1 | 4.7 | 23% | 1.8 | 7.6 | 4.4 | – | 4.4 | 1.07 | -0.32 | 27.0 | new team |
| 25 | Tyrod TaylorGB | QB | @ TB | 1.1 | 4.8 | 23% | 1.8 | 7.7 | 4.7 | – | 4.7 | 1.01 | +0.60 | 21.5 | new team |
| 26 | Shane BuecheleBUF | QB | vs NE | 1.1 | 4.3 | 25% | 1.6 | 7.0 | 3.9 | – | 3.9 | 1.12 | +0.27 | 27.8 | new team |
| 27 | Max BrosmerMIN | QB | vs MIA | 1.1 | 3.6 | 31% | 1.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | – | 3.2 | 1.10 | +1.18 | 25.0 | settled |
| 28 | Jalen MilroeSEA | QB | vs LAC | 1.1 | 5.7 | 19% | 2.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | – | 5.7 | 1.01 | -0.85 | 24.8 | settled |
| 29 | Bailey ZappeNYJ | QB | @ CHI | 1.1 | 4.6 | 24% | 1.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | – | 4.9 | 0.95 | +0.16 | 19.5 | new team |
| 30 | Tyson BagentCHI | QB | vs NYJ | 1.1 | 3.0 | 38% | 1.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.21g | 2.7 | 1.10 | +1.87 | 23.0 | settled |
| 31 | Fernando MendozaLV | QB | vs KC | 1.1 | 2.9 | 39% | 1.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | – | 3.1 | 0.94 | -0.98 | 21.5 | rookie (pick 1) |
| 32 | Nick MullensJAX | QB | @ CIN | 1.2 | 5.5 | 21% | 2.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | -0.31g | 5.2 | 1.07 | +0.72 | 24.5 | settled |
| 33 | Mitchell TrubiskyTEN | QB | @ BAL | 1.2 | 5.0 | 23% | 1.9 | 8.1 | 5.9 | – | 5.9 | 0.85 | -0.60 | 16.0 | new head coach, new team |
| 34 | Joshua DobbsDET | QB | @ CAR | 1.3 | 6.0 | 22% | 2.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | – | 5.7 | 1.06 | -0.68 | 27.0 | new team |
| 35 | Gardner MinshewARI | QB | @ NYG | 1.3 | 4.9 | 27% | 1.9 | 8.0 | 4.8 | – | 4.8 | 1.02 | +0.19 | 23.0 | new team |
| 36 | Sam HowellDAL | QB | @ HOU | 1.4 | 5.3 | 27% | 2.0 | 8.7 | 5.6 | – | 5.6 | 0.95 | -1.01 | 22.5 | new team |
| 37 | Teddy BridgewaterDET | QB | @ CAR | 1.5 | 8.0 | 18% | 3.0 | 13.0 | 7.6 | – | 7.6 | 1.06 | -0.68 | 27.0 | new team |
| 38 | Easton StickTB | QB | vs GB | 1.5 | 4.8 | 31% | 1.8 | 7.7 | 5.4 | – | 5.4 | 0.89 | -0.54 | 18.0 | new team |
| 39 | Sean CliffordCIN | QB | vs JAX | 1.5 | 5.3 | 29% | 2.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | – | 4.9 | 1.07 | -0.32 | 27.0 | new team |
| 40 | Hendon HookerTEN | QB | @ BAL | 1.6 | 5.6 | 28% | 2.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | – | 6.6 | 0.85 | -0.60 | 16.0 | new head coach, new team |
| 41 | Mason RudolphPIT | QB | @ CLE | 1.6 | 4.0 | 41% | 1.5 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 0.31g | 4.4 | 0.93 | -0.76 | 20.5 | new head coach |
| 42 | Ty SimpsonLA | QB | @ PHI | 1.6 | 2.5 | 67% | 0.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 | – | 2.6 | 0.95 | -1.42 | 23.3 | rookie (pick 13) |
| 43 | Jake HaenerNYG | QB | vs ARI | 1.7 | 5.2 | 32% | 2.0 | 8.3 | 5.1 | – | 5.1 | 1.02 | +0.78 | 21.5 | new head coach, new team |
| 44 | Spencer RattlerNO | QB | vs ATL | 1.7 | 6.0 | 29% | 2.3 | 9.8 | 5.5 | – | 5.5 | 1.09 | +0.65 | 25.8 | settled |
| 45 | Zach WilsonNO | QB | vs ATL | 1.9 | 9.8 | 20% | 3.7 | 15.8 | 8.9 | – | 8.9 | 1.09 | +0.65 | 25.8 | new team |
| 46 | Davis MillsHOU | QB | vs DAL | 1.9 | 7.8 | 25% | 3.0 | 12.6 | 6.8 | – | 6.8 | 1.15 | +2.14 | 25.0 | settled |
| 47 | Kenny PickettCAR | QB | vs DET | 2.1 | 4.8 | 44% | 1.8 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 1.02g | 4.5 | 1.07 | +1.12 | 23.5 | new team |
| 48 | Tommy DeVitoNE | QB | @ BUF | 2.1 | 3.0 | 69% | 1.2 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.41g | 3.3 | 0.93 | -0.72 | 20.8 | new team |
| 49 | Joe FlaccoCIN | QB | vs JAX | 2.2 | 8.2 | 27% | 3.1 | 13.3 | 7.6 | – | 7.6 | 1.07 | -0.32 | 27.0 | settled |
| 50 | Quinn EwersJAX | QB | @ CIN | 2.3 | 3.3 | 70% | 1.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 0.01g | 3.1 | 1.07 | +0.72 | 24.5 | new team |
| 51 | Shedeur SandersCLE | QB | vs PIT | 2.3 | 3.2 | 73% | 1.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 0.01g | 3.5 | 0.91 | +0.00 | 18.0 | new head coach |
| 52 | Mac JonesSF | QB | vs DEN | 2.4 | 5.6 | 43% | 2.1 | 9.0 | 8.2 | -0.21g | 5.4 | 1.04 | -0.17 | 24.8 | settled |
| 53 | J.J. McCarthyNYG | QB | vs ARI | 2.4 | 10.3 | 24% | 3.9 | 16.6 | 10.1 | – | 10.1 | 1.02 | +0.78 | 21.5 | new head coach, new team |
| 54 | Andy DaltonPHI | QB | vs LA | 2.5 | 3.9 | 65% | 1.5 | 6.3 | 6.7 | -1.01g | 4.1 | 0.94 | -0.36 | 20.3 | new team |
| 55 | Anthony RichardsonIND | QB | @ WAS | 2.7 | 11.6 | 24% | 4.4 | 18.7 | 10.3 | – | 10.3 | 1.13 | +1.45 | 25.5 | settled |
| 56 | Justin FieldsKC | QB | @ LV | 3.3 | 10.6 | 31% | 4.0 | 17.2 | 9.8 | – | 9.8 | 1.08 | +0.15 | 26.0 | new team |
| 57 | Tua TagovailoaATL | QB | @ NO | 3.5 | 9.9 | 35% | 3.8 | 16.0 | 9.7 | – | 9.7 | 1.02 | +0.36 | 22.8 | new team |
| 58 | Will LevisNYJ | QB | @ CHI | 4.4 | 13.5 | 33% | 5.1 | 21.8 | 14.2 | – | 14.2 | 0.95 | +0.16 | 19.5 | new team |
| 59 | Carson WentzMIN | QB | vs MIA | 4.5 | 11.9 | 38% | 4.5 | 19.2 | 8.7 | 12.82g | 10.7 | 1.10 | +1.18 | 25.0 | settled |
| 60 | Drew LockSEA | QB | vs LAC | 5.0 | 12.5 | 40% | 4.7 | 20.2 | 7.7 | 17.12g | 12.4 | 1.01 | -0.85 | 24.8 | settled |
| 61 | Jayden DanielsWAS | QB | vs IND | 7.0 | 17.4 | 40% | 6.6 | 28.2 | 18.1 | 16.22g | 17.2 | 1.01 | +0.47 | 22.0 | settled |
| 62 | Jameis WinstonNYG | QB | vs ARI | 7.2 | 8.7 | 82% | 3.3 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 4.82g | 8.6 | 1.02 | +0.78 | 21.5 | new head coach |
| 63 | Case KeenumCHI | QB | vs NYJ | 7.8 | 11.8 | 67% | 4.5 | 19.1 | 3.9 | 24.51g | 10.7 | 1.10 | +1.87 | 23.0 | new team |
| 64 | Malik WillisMIA | QB | @ MIN | 8.1 | 10.0 | 81% | 3.8 | 16.2 | 14.7 | 13.43g | 13.9 | 0.72 | -2.32 | 13.5 | new head coach, new team |
| 65 | Kyler MurrayMIN | QB | vs MIA | 8.9 | 12.5 | 71% | 4.8 | 20.3 | 17.1 | 5.52g | 11.3 | 1.10 | +1.18 | 25.0 | new team |
| 66 | Baker MayfieldTB | QB | vs GB | 10.1 | 12.4 | 82% | 4.7 | 20.1 | 16.3 | 12.43g | 13.9 | 0.89 | -0.54 | 18.0 | settled |
| 67 | Marcus MariotaWAS | QB | vs IND | 10.2 | 12.2 | 84% | 4.6 | 19.7 | 9.5 | 14.62g | 12.0 | 1.01 | +0.47 | 22.0 | settled |
| 68 | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | QB | @ NO | 10.8 | 15.5 | 69% | 5.9 | 25.2 | 15.3 | 15.01g | 15.2 | 1.02 | +0.36 | 22.8 | settled |
| 69 | Sam DarnoldSEA | QB | vs LAC | 11.1 | 14.4 | 77% | 5.5 | 23.4 | 13.6 | 15.12g | 14.4 | 1.01 | -0.85 | 24.8 | settled |
| 70 | Drake MayeNE | QB | @ BUF | 11.4 | 11.7 | 97% | 4.5 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 8.23g | 12.5 | 0.93 | -0.72 | 20.8 | settled |
| 71 | Justin HerbertLAC | QB | @ SEA | 11.5 | 11.8 | 97% | 4.5 | 19.2 | 17.5 | 12.33g | 14.4 | 0.82 | -1.88 | 17.8 | settled |
| 72 | Aaron RodgersPIT | QB | @ CLE | 11.6 | 12.6 | 93% | 4.8 | 20.4 | 13.3 | 13.73g | 13.6 | 0.93 | -0.76 | 20.5 | new head coach |
| 73 | Cam WardTEN | QB | @ BAL | 11.8 | 12.1 | 98% | 4.6 | 19.6 | 14.6 | 14.13g | 14.3 | 0.85 | -0.60 | 16.0 | new head coach |
| 74 | Daniel JonesIND | QB | @ WAS | 12.2 | 13.6 | 90% | 5.2 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 10.13g | 12.1 | 1.13 | +1.45 | 25.5 | settled |
| 75 | Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB | vs NYJ | 12.5 | 24.3 | 51% | 9.2 | 39.3 | 21.3 | 23.02g | 22.1 | 1.10 | +1.87 | 23.0 | settled |
| 76 | Deshaun WatsonCLE | QB | vs PIT | 12.6 | 14.4 | 87% | 5.5 | 23.3 | 12.4 | 18.03g | 15.8 | 0.91 | +0.00 | 18.0 | new head coach |
| 77 | Jacoby BrissettARI | QB | @ NYG | 13.9 | 15.7 | 88% | 6.0 | 25.5 | 13.8 | 16.53g | 15.4 | 1.02 | +0.19 | 23.0 | settled |
| 78 | Kirk CousinsLV | QB | vs KC | 14.3 | 15.8 | 91% | 6.0 | 25.7 | 13.7 | 19.13g | 16.9 | 0.94 | -0.98 | 21.5 | new head coach, new team |
| 79 | Matthew StaffordLA | QB | @ PHI | 14.5 | 16.3 | 89% | 6.2 | 26.4 | 15.3 | 18.33g | 17.1 | 0.95 | -1.42 | 23.3 | settled |
| 80 | Geno SmithNYJ | QB | @ CHI | 14.6 | 15.1 | 97% | 5.7 | 24.5 | 14.3 | 17.03g | 15.9 | 0.95 | +0.16 | 19.5 | new team |
| 81 | Jordan LoveGB | QB | @ TB | 15.7 | 16.8 | 93% | 6.4 | 27.2 | 15.3 | 17.63g | 16.7 | 1.01 | +0.60 | 21.5 | settled |
| 82 | Bo NixDEN | QB | @ SF | 15.7 | 16.0 | 98% | 6.1 | 26.0 | 18.2 | 15.23g | 16.4 | 0.97 | -0.25 | 21.8 | settled |
| 83 | C.J. StroudHOU | QB | vs DAL | 16.7 | 17.4 | 96% | 6.6 | 28.2 | 15.4 | 15.13g | 15.2 | 1.15 | +2.14 | 25.0 | settled |
| 84 | Jalen HurtsPHI | QB | vs LA | 17.4 | 18.0 | 97% | 6.8 | 29.2 | 19.6 | 18.83g | 19.1 | 0.94 | -0.36 | 20.3 | settled |
| 85 | Joe BurrowCIN | QB | vs JAX | 18.1 | 19.8 | 92% | 7.5 | 32.0 | 19.6 | 17.63g | 18.4 | 1.07 | -0.32 | 27.0 | settled |
| 86 | Dak PrescottDAL | QB | @ HOU | 18.3 | 19.3 | 95% | 7.3 | 31.2 | 18.9 | 21.03g | 20.2 | 0.95 | -1.01 | 22.5 | settled |
| 87 | Trevor LawrenceJAX | QB | @ CIN | 18.3 | 19.2 | 95% | 7.3 | 31.1 | 17.7 | 18.03g | 17.9 | 1.07 | +0.72 | 24.5 | settled |
| 88 | Bryce YoungCAR | QB | vs DET | 20.5 | 21.3 | 96% | 8.1 | 34.5 | 14.6 | 23.43g | 19.9 | 1.07 | +1.12 | 23.5 | settled |
| 89 | Patrick MahomesKC | QB | @ LV | 20.5 | 21.3 | 96% | 8.1 | 34.5 | 15.7 | 22.53g | 19.8 | 1.08 | +0.15 | 26.0 | settled |
| 90 | Jared GoffDET | QB | @ CAR | 20.6 | 20.8 | 99% | 7.9 | 33.7 | 16.4 | 21.93g | 19.7 | 1.06 | -0.68 | 27.0 | settled |
| 91 | Tyler ShoughNO | QB | vs ATL | 20.8 | 22.6 | 92% | 8.6 | 36.5 | 16.3 | 23.53g | 20.6 | 1.09 | +0.65 | 25.8 | settled |
| 92 | Lamar JacksonBAL | QB | vs TEN | 21.7 | 22.6 | 96% | 8.6 | 36.6 | 19.3 | 20.43g | 20.0 | 1.13 | +0.75 | 27.5 | new head coach |
| 93 | Brock PurdySF | QB | vs DEN | 22.0 | 23.6 | 93% | 9.0 | 38.3 | 16.5 | 27.03g | 22.8 | 1.04 | -0.17 | 24.8 | settled |
| 94 | Josh AllenBUF | QB | vs NE | 29.1 | 30.4 | 96% | 11.6 | 49.3 | 20.4 | 31.83g | 27.3 | 1.12 | +0.27 | 27.8 | settled |
* implied total is a model estimate — the market has only lined 64 games this far out.