Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Tyler Shough

NO

QB20 · overall #126 · tier 6 · age 26

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Projected points

220

16.9/gm

Value over replacement

8

repl 261

Range

185–255

sd 35

Week

13.5

@ DET

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
34.4
Pass yards / game
245
Pass TD / game
1.45
Carries / game
4.1
Rush yards / game
16
Rush TD / game
0.18
Games projected
13.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.1
Games of history
11
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
31.6
Projected plays / game
62.9
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.09
OL pass protection
+0.23
OL continuity
78%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
69%
1st-down pass rate
47%
Run friendly
-0.26
Scheme creativity
-0.31
Play action / motion
19% / 59%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
DET,BAL,LV
Window matchup
-0.20
Opponents after
ATL,MIN,NYG
After matchup
-0.06
Flip edge
-0.14
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
8
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.82

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

11

Points

158.0

Per game

14.36

17-gm pace

244

Best / worst

21.9 / 0.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
30.002000000
84.31730128013120
99.2152417611120
1019.01927282204-30
127.93043243017220
1317.42638239216180
1421.31320144017552
1518.12432272108320
1617.1324930810280
1721.9222733320460
1821.82335259113341