Fourth & Inches

2026 regular · wk 4 · half ppr · 64 games lined

QB

Drew Allar

PITROOKIE R3

QB85 · overall #638 · tier – · age 22

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Projected points

26

2.4/gm

Value over replacement

-141

repl 250

Range

6–46

sd 20

Week

0.6

@ CLE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
4.1
Pass yards / game
30
Pass TD / game
0.17
Carries / game
0.0
Rush yards / game
3
Rush TD / game
0.00
Games projected
10.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
–
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
61.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.51
OL pass protection
+0.02
OL continuity
65%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.86
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
21% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
66
Effective contributors
–
Top player's share
–
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
4-6
Window opponents
CLE,IND,TB
Window matchup
-0.06
Opponents after
NO,CLE
After matchup
-0.18
Flip edge
+0.12
Buy basis
recent form
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.11

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Drew Allar — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.