Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Cam Ward

TEN

QB17 · overall #173 · tier 5 · age 24

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Projected points

236

15.6/gm

Value over replacement

-11

repl 261

Range

198–273

sd 38

Week

15.4

vs NYJ

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
35.5
Pass yards / game
233
Pass TD / game
1.44
Carries / game
2.8
Rush yards / game
11
Rush TD / game
0.11
Games projected
15.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.0
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
35.4
Projected plays / game
59.3
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-1.43
OL pass protection
-1.39
OL continuity
46%
2TE rate
21%
3WR rate
77%
1st-down pass rate
39%
Run friendly
+0.19
Scheme creativity
-0.29
Play action / motion
20% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
66
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NYJ,PHI,NYG
Window matchup
-0.11
Opponents after
BAL,HOU,IND
After matchup
-0.56
Flip edge
+0.46
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.25

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

186.7

Per game

10.98

17-gm pace

187

Best / worst

23.9 / 2.5

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
12.5122811200000
29.8193317510480
312.02338219113120
44.51026108012220
58.02139265015-60
66.9263822211000
710.2253425511000
812.8223825911240
96.4122114500260
1113.12437194103330
1223.92842256106371
136.3243814100170
1411.1142811721240
1515.0182917020120
1618.0212822820490
1717.02140251202100
189.23352002111