QB
Baker Mayfield
TBQB14 · overall #131 · tier 4 · age 31
Projected points
250
16.7/gm
Value over replacement
5
repl 261
Range
210–291
sd 41
Week
16.6
@ CIN
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 31.9
- Pass yards / game
- 237
- Pass TD / game
- 1.62
- Carries / game
- 3.2
- Rush yards / game
- 15
- Rush TD / game
- 0.10
- Games projected
- 15.0
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 17.1
- Games of history
- 63
- Age multiplier
- 0.974
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.6
- Projected plays / game
- 62.1
- Projected pass rate
- 58%
- OL run block
- +0.88
- OL pass protection
- +1.32
- OL continuity
- 82%
- 2TE rate
- 22%
- 3WR rate
- 72%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 44%
- Run friendly
- +0.57
- Scheme creativity
- -0.09
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 58%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 43
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.45
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- CIN,CLE,MIN
- Window matchup
- -0.29
- Opponents after
- GB,DAL,PIT
- After matchup
- +0.49
- Flip edge
- -0.78
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 10
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.39
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
17
Points
271.9
Per game
16.00
17-gm pace
272
Best / worst
26.7 / 3.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22.6 | 17 | 32 | 167 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| 2 | 19.9 | 25 | 38 | 215 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| 3 | 17.7 | 19 | 29 | 233 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| 4 | 18.9 | 22 | 40 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| 5 | 26.7 | 29 | 33 | 379 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| 6 | 19.6 | 17 | 23 | 256 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| 7 | 11.1 | 28 | 50 | 228 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 4.1 | 15 | 24 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 22.9 | 28 | 43 | 273 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 16.8 | 16 | 28 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| 12 | 3.5 | 9 | 19 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| 13 | 14.5 | 18 | 28 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| 14 | 11.1 | 14 | 30 | 122 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| 15 | 19.2 | 19 | 34 | 277 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | 12.7 | 18 | 26 | 145 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| 17 | 17.4 | 33 | 44 | 346 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 | 13.2 | 16 | 22 | 203 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 0 |