Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Kyler Murray

MIN

QB25 · overall #117 · tier 7 · age 29

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Projected points

196

17.4/gm

Value over replacement

12

repl 261

Range

163–230

sd 33

Week

12.2

vs GB

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
33.0
Pass yards / game
231
Pass TD / game
1.36
Carries / game
5.0
Rush yards / game
26
Rush TD / game
0.24
Games projected
11.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.4
Games of history
41
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.1
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.03
OL pass protection
+0.12
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
27%
3WR rate
63%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.77
Scheme creativity
+0.21
Play action / motion
26% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
GB,CHI,TB
Window matchup
-0.02
Opponents after
MIA,NO
After matchup
+0.66
Flip edge
-0.69
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.87

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

5

Points

77.8

Per game

15.56

17-gm pace

264

Best / worst

18.3 / 14.0

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
118.32129163207380
214.01725220117320
314.12235159106370
416.12741200225410
515.32331220004251