QB
Joe Burrow
CINQB4 · overall #43 · tier 2 · age 29
Projected points
273
21.3/gm
Value over replacement
64
repl 261
Range
233–313
sd 40
Week
19.5
vs TB
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 43.2
- Pass yards / game
- 291
- Pass TD / game
- 2.30
- Carries / game
- 3.5
- Rush yards / game
- 13
- Rush TD / game
- 0.13
- Games projected
- 12.8
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 19.4
- Games of history
- 51
- Age multiplier
- 1.000
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 60.9
- Projected pass rate
- 60%
- OL run block
- -0.72
- OL pass protection
- -1.37
- OL continuity
- 99%
- 2TE rate
- 40%
- 3WR rate
- 58%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 54%
- Run friendly
- -1.75
- Scheme creativity
- -0.69
- Play action / motion
- 17% / 52%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- buy low
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- TB,HOU,PIT
- Window matchup
- +0.38
- Opponents after
- JAX,MIA
- After matchup
- +0.26
- Flip edge
- +0.12
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 6
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- -0.52
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
8
Points
134.5
Per game
16.81
17-gm pace
286
Best / worst
29.0 / 5.5
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.8 | 14 | 23 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7 | 13 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 19.2 | 24 | 46 | 261 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 | 23.4 | 25 | 36 | 284 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 5.5 | 25 | 39 | 225 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 | 29.0 | 25 | 32 | 309 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 | 20.4 | 24 | 31 | 305 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | 21.1 | 29 | 39 | 236 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |