Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Trevor Lawrence

JAX

QB12 · overall #97 · tier 4 · age 26

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Projected points

253

17.8/gm

Value over replacement

21

repl 261

Range

213–292

sd 39

Week

15.5

vs CLE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
33.9
Pass yards / game
238
Pass TD / game
1.50
Carries / game
4.2
Rush yards / game
18
Rush TD / game
0.32
Games projected
14.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.7
Games of history
60
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.2
Projected plays / game
61.1
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.83
OL pass protection
-0.31
OL continuity
100%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.06
Scheme creativity
-0.04
Play action / motion
23% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CLE,DEN,NE
Window matchup
-0.27
Opponents after
CIN,PHI,HOU
After matchup
-0.13
Flip edge
-0.14
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.27

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

338.2

Per game

19.89

17-gm pace

338

Best / worst

44.3 / 7.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
110.31931178114120
219.2244227132240
37.8204022201290
411.7213117410770
526.218252211110542
619.2274225820390
717.62348296102180
921.22334220019242
109.81323158115350
1115.0142215311591
1217.11830256335290
1321.71627229203250
1419.41730244204160
1544.32032330505511
1631.22336279306201
1723.12337263018262
1823.32230255302110