Davis Mills

HOU

QB56 · overall #576 · tier – · age 27

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Projected points

6.8/gm

Value over replacement

-85

repl 250

Range

32–98

sd 33

Week

1.9

vs DAL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Per game Season total

Pass attempts / game: 17.1
Pass yards / game: 112
Pass TD / game: 0.69
Carries / game: 1.1
Rush yards / game: 6
Rush TD / game: 0.05
Games projected: 9.6
Observed pts/gm (history): 8.9
Games of history: 30
Age multiplier: 1.025
Usage carryover: 1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play: 32.9
Projected plays / game: 61.9
Projected pass rate: 57%
OL run block: -1.37
OL pass protection: -1.19
OL continuity: 64%
2TE rate: 20%
3WR rate: 76%
1st-down pass rate: 46%
Run friendly: -0.36
Scheme creativity: -0.30
Play action / motion: 23% / 53%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label: settled
Ambiguity score: 24
Effective contributors: –
Top player's share: –
New play-caller: no
Variance multiplier: 1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action: sell high
Window weeks: 4-6
Window opponents: DAL,TEN,JAX
Window matchup: +0.43
Opponents after: NYG,LAC
After matchup: -0.45
Flip edge: +0.88
Buy basis: recent form
Bye week: 8
Playoff schedule (15-17): -0.79

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Standard Half PPR Full PPR

Games

Points

68.6

Per game

11.43

17-gm pace

194

Best / worst

27.7 / 1.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

Wk	Pts	Rank	Cmp	Att	Pa Yds	Pa TD	INT	Ru Att	Ru Yds	Ru TD
5	1.2	QB30	2	4	23	0	0	3	3	0
9	6.2	QB27	17	30	137	0	0	2	7	0
10	27.7	QB1	27	45	292	2	1	3	20	1
11	16.4	QB9	26	41	274	1	0	2	14	0
12	14.5	QB14	16	30	153	2	0	2	4	0
18	2.6	QB33	3	9	36	0	0	1	12	0