Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Anthony Richardson

IND

QB37 · overall #376 · tier 9 · age 24

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Projected points

94

10.4/gm

Value over replacement

-54

repl 261

Range

54–134

sd 40

Week

5.8

vs BAL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
22.2
Pass yards / game
163
Pass TD / game
0.93
Carries / game
2.3
Rush yards / game
12
Rush TD / game
0.12
Games projected
9.1
Observed pts/gm (history)
13.3
Games of history
17
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.7
Projected plays / game
61.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.78
OL pass protection
+0.85
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
35%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
48%
Run friendly
+0.12
Scheme creativity
+0.53
Play action / motion
31% / 50%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
BAL,KC,HOU
Window matchup
-0.69
Opponents after
WAS,PIT,TEN
After matchup
+0.84
Flip edge
-1.53
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.32

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

2

Points

1.7

Per game

0.83

17-gm pace

14

Best / worst

1.8 / -0.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
3-0.1000004-10
51.812900000