Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Carson Beck

ARIROOKIE R3

QB76 · overall #685 · tier

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Projected points

38

2.6/gm

Value over replacement

-202

repl 261

Range

20–56

sd 18

Week

2.0

@ LAC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
4.9
Pass yards / game
35
Pass TD / game
0.22
Carries / game
0.0
Rush yards / game
3
Rush TD / game
0.00
Games projected
14.7
Observed pts/gm (history)
Games of history
0
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
61.8
Projected pass rate
59%
OL run block
-0.66
OL pass protection
-0.78
OL continuity
0%
2TE rate
48%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.40
Scheme creativity
+0.44
Play action / motion
25% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
43
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.45

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
LAC,SEA,SF
Window matchup
-1.47
Opponents after
NYG,DET,LA
After matchup
-0.27
Flip edge
-1.20
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
14
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.29

Last season game log

week by week

No 2025-season weekly record for Carson Beck — rookies and players who did not record a stat line have none.