Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Joe Flacco

CIN

QB45 · overall #609 · tier 9 · age 41

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Projected points

82

7.8/gm

Value over replacement

-90

repl 261

Range

38–126

sd 44

Week

5.8

vs TB

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
20.6
Pass yards / game
133
Pass TD / game
0.89
Carries / game
1.2
Rush yards / game
5
Rush TD / game
0.04
Games projected
10.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.5
Games of history
30
Age multiplier
0.897
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
60.9
Projected pass rate
60%
OL run block
-0.72
OL pass protection
-1.37
OL continuity
99%
2TE rate
40%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
54%
Run friendly
-1.75
Scheme creativity
-0.69
Play action / motion
17% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy low
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
TB,HOU,PIT
Window matchup
+0.38
Opponents after
JAX,MIA
After matchup
+0.26
Flip edge
+0.12
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.52

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

13

Points

146.7

Per game

11.28

17-gm pace

192

Best / worst

30.7 / 0.2

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
112.2314529012260
28.8254519911180
33.7213614201000
41.31634184023-10
618.8294521920000
726.0314734230530
824.32134223202141
930.73147470421-10
119.92340199111-10
129.6193718311130
160.211400000
171.2352400420
180.200000120