Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Aaron Rodgers

PIT

QB28 · overall #253 · tier 7 · age 42

← back to rankings

Projected points

178

13.5/gm

Value over replacement

-38

repl 261

Range

137–218

sd 41

Week

11.2

vs ATL

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
29.7
Pass yards / game
206
Pass TD / game
1.39
Carries / game
1.4
Rush yards / game
5
Rush TD / game
0.04
Games projected
13.2
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.2
Games of history
51
Age multiplier
0.889
Usage carryover
0.90

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
61.4
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.48
OL pass protection
+0.07
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
45%
3WR rate
52%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
-0.86
Scheme creativity
-0.30
Play action / motion
21% / 51%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
new head coach
Ambiguity score
66
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
yes
Variance multiplier
1.85

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
ATL,NE,CIN
Window matchup
+0.10
Opponents after
CLE,IND,TB
After matchup
+0.11
Flip edge
-0.01
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
9
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.16

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

226.6

Per game

14.16

17-gm pace

241

Best / worst

25.7 / 2.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
125.72230244401-10
210.4183320312130
311.7162313921410
412.8182220010380
617.5213023520110
722.6233424942160
816.8243621920000
912.1253520310200
106.4163116112000
119.491511610180
132.7102111700100
1421.0233428410201
1517.0232722420000
1615.5274126610290
177.3213916800160
1817.83147294101200