Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Sam Darnold

SEA

QB27 · overall #242 · tier 7 · age 29

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Projected points

184

13.7/gm

Value over replacement

-35

repl 261

Range

139–228

sd 45

Week

11.8

vs NE

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
26.8
Pass yards / game
204
Pass TD / game
1.37
Carries / game
2.9
Rush yards / game
10
Rush TD / game
0.07
Games projected
13.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
13.4
Games of history
50
Age multiplier
1.000
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.9
Projected plays / game
61.2
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.11
OL pass protection
+0.37
OL continuity
100%
2TE rate
34%
3WR rate
58%
1st-down pass rate
50%
Run friendly
+0.17
Scheme creativity
-0.21
Play action / motion
23% / 52%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NE,ARI,WAS
Window matchup
+1.18
Opponents after
LAC,SF,DEN
After matchup
-0.33
Flip edge
+1.51
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.45

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

235.4

Per game

13.85

17-gm pace

235

Best / worst

27.6 / 3.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
15.41623150002140
215.8223329522000
316.7141821820000
416.11826242101240
527.6283434141000
620.0162729520420
78.6173121311310
927.2212433041000
104.91012178113-20
114.32944279042110
1217.71626244201-10
133.1142612800000
1422.32030249313230
1511.3223627100450
1619.5223427022370
176.1182714711320
188.8202619800690