Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Bryce Young

CAR

QB22 · overall #217 · tier 6 · age 25

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Projected points

209

14.4/gm

Value over replacement

-28

repl 261

Range

169–248

sd 40

Week

12.8

vs CHI

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
31.2
Pass yards / game
206
Pass TD / game
1.28
Carries / game
3.1
Rush yards / game
15
Rush TD / game
0.17
Games projected
14.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
12.8
Games of history
46
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
59.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.31
OL pass protection
+0.20
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.67
Scheme creativity
-0.69
Play action / motion
21% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CHI,ATL,CLE
Window matchup
-0.37
Opponents after
DET,PHI
After matchup
-0.20
Flip edge
-0.16
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.11

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

218.0

Per game

13.63

17-gm pace

232

Best / worst

31.8 / 1.6

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
18.21835154125400
221.3355532831220
311.6162412100281
410.3183015010130
512.0193019821310
618.5172519931350
710.51525138102100
93.0112010201290
101.6172512401260
1131.83145448301-10
128.31829169124150
1322.51520206305230
1515.41524163107490
1617.62132191204200
178.9142454019271
1816.52435266212-10