Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Jared Goff

DET

QB15 · overall #164 · tier 5 · age 31

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Projected points

243

15.7/gm

Value over replacement

-10

repl 261

Range

198–289

sd 46

Week

17.1

vs NO

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
31.2
Pass yards / game
240
Pass TD / game
1.65
Carries / game
1.6
Rush yards / game
4
Rush TD / game
0.03
Games projected
15.5
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.7
Games of history
68
Age multiplier
0.974
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.5
Projected plays / game
62.6
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.86
OL pass protection
+0.77
OL continuity
43%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
46%
Run friendly
-0.25
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
28% / 60%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
43
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.45

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
buy now, flip wk4
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
NO,BUF,NYJ
Window matchup
+1.02
Opponents after
CAR,ARI
After matchup
+0.25
Flip edge
+0.77
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
6
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.22

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

297.1

Per game

17.47

17-gm pace

297

Best / worst

34.0 / 2.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
110.93139225111-10
234.0232833450160
312.7202820210460
412.7162716821000
520.11923258302-20
616.8232920320170
710.3202924111270
919.4253728420000
1024.8253332030000
1112.11437255111-10
1217.2284227921000
1320.62026256201240
1416.22534309102-20
1525.5254133830000
1626.53454364301-10
172.1182919712320
1815.2274233111000