Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Geno Smith

NYJ

QB21 · overall #218 · tier 6 · age 35

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Projected points

210

14.4/gm

Value over replacement

-29

repl 261

Range

167–253

sd 43

Week

12.3

@ TEN

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
31.5
Pass yards / game
224
Pass TD / game
1.35
Carries / game
2.9
Rush yards / game
12
Rush TD / game
0.07
Games projected
14.6
Observed pts/gm (history)
14.6
Games of history
64
Age multiplier
0.943
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.2
Projected plays / game
60.8
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
-0.25
OL pass protection
-0.19
OL continuity
81%
2TE rate
22%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
41%
Run friendly
-0.44
Scheme creativity
-0.09
Play action / motion
19% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
TEN,GB,DET
Window matchup
-0.57
Opponents after
CHI,CLE,NE
After matchup
-0.56
Flip edge
-0.01
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
13
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.09

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

15

Points

173.9

Per game

11.59

17-gm pace

197

Best / worst

26.3 / 2.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
117.52434362112100
23.22443180035200
326.1192928930250
49.81421117234310
55.9253622802380
68.71723174114-30
72.810166700210
926.3293928441590
104.4162614301370
1112.92742238114140
1214.2304428510380
1312.01823165212-60
149.0132111610140
1614.0162320121000
177.1202817612110