Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Josh Allen

BUF

QB1 · overall #53 · tier 1 · age 30

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Projected points

307

19.9/gm

Value over replacement

55

repl 261

Range

260–354

sd 47

Week

18.5

@ HOU

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
28.5
Pass yards / game
221
Pass TD / game
1.48
Carries / game
6.4
Rush yards / game
30
Rush TD / game
0.61
Games projected
15.4
Observed pts/gm (history)
23.6
Games of history
65
Age multiplier
0.981
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
61.0
Projected pass rate
55%
OL run block
+1.34
OL pass protection
+1.30
OL continuity
79%
2TE rate
28%
3WR rate
65%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.96
Scheme creativity
+0.22
Play action / motion
21% / 57%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
hold
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
HOU,DET,LAC
Window matchup
+0.01
Opponents after
NE,LA,LV
After matchup
+0.18
Flip edge
-0.17
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
7
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.32

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

16

Points

364.6

Per game

22.79

17-gm pace

387

Best / worst

42.7 / 6.9

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
138.833463942014302
211.81425148006590
323.02228213304250
424.91622209217451
519.42231253219530
615.41526180226420
823.2121916310372
928.82326273106192
1019.32840306214310
1142.71930317326403
128.12434253025200
1316.71523123118381
1437.82228251309781
1524.519281933011480
166.91219130007170
1723.22335262007272