QB
Josh Allen
BUFQB1 · overall #53 · tier 1 · age 30
Projected points
307
19.9/gm
Value over replacement
55
repl 261
Range
260–354
sd 47
Week
18.5
@ HOU
Projected usage
opportunity, before efficiency
- Pass attempts / game
- 28.5
- Pass yards / game
- 221
- Pass TD / game
- 1.48
- Carries / game
- 6.4
- Rush yards / game
- 30
- Rush TD / game
- 0.61
- Games projected
- 15.4
- Observed pts/gm (history)
- 23.6
- Games of history
- 65
- Age multiplier
- 0.981
- Usage carryover
- 1.00
Team context
what scales this projection
- Neutral sec / play
- 34.7
- Projected plays / game
- 61.0
- Projected pass rate
- 55%
- OL run block
- +1.34
- OL pass protection
- +1.30
- OL continuity
- 79%
- 2TE rate
- 28%
- 3WR rate
- 65%
- 1st-down pass rate
- 40%
- Run friendly
- +0.96
- Scheme creativity
- +0.22
- Play action / motion
- 21% / 57%
Situation
ambiguity widens the projection range
- Label
- settled
- Ambiguity score
- 24
- Effective contributors
- –
- Top player's share
- –
- New play-caller
- no
- Variance multiplier
- 1.34
Trade window
schedule-driven buy / sell timing
- Action
- hold
- Window weeks
- 1-3
- Window opponents
- HOU,DET,LAC
- Window matchup
- +0.01
- Opponents after
- NE,LA,LV
- After matchup
- +0.18
- Flip edge
- -0.17
- Buy basis
- season average
- Bye week
- 7
- Playoff schedule (15-17)
- +0.32
2025 game log
full season · Half PPR
Games
16
Points
364.6
Per game
22.79
17-gm pace
387
Best / worst
42.7 / 6.9
Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.
| Wk | Pts | Cmp | Att | Pa Yds | Pa TD | INT | Ru Att | Ru Yds | Ru TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38.8 | 33 | 46 | 394 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 2 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 14 | 25 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| 3 | 23.0 | 22 | 28 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| 4 | 24.9 | 16 | 22 | 209 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| 5 | 19.4 | 22 | 31 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| 6 | 15.4 | 15 | 26 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| 8 | 23.2 | 12 | 19 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 9 | 28.8 | 23 | 26 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 2 |
| 10 | 19.3 | 28 | 40 | 306 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| 11 | 42.7 | 19 | 30 | 317 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 3 |
| 12 | 8.1 | 24 | 34 | 253 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 | 16.7 | 15 | 23 | 123 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| 14 | 37.8 | 22 | 28 | 251 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| 15 | 24.5 | 19 | 28 | 193 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| 16 | 6.9 | 12 | 19 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 | 23.2 | 23 | 35 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 2 |