Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Caleb Williams

CHI

QB5 · overall #101 · tier 2 · age 24

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Projected points

269

17.6/gm

Value over replacement

19

repl 261

Range

227–311

sd 42

Week

16.5

@ CAR

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
34.1
Pass yards / game
248
Pass TD / game
1.49
Carries / game
4.6
Rush yards / game
21
Rush TD / game
0.11
Games projected
15.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
17.1
Games of history
34
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
32.8
Projected plays / game
62.4
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+1.37
OL pass protection
+1.06
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
36%
3WR rate
64%
1st-down pass rate
45%
Run friendly
+0.60
Scheme creativity
+0.58
Play action / motion
26% / 54%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CAR,MIN,PHI
Window matchup
-0.55
Opponents after
NYJ,GB,ATL
After matchup
+0.71
Flip edge
-1.26
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.28

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

317.7

Per game

18.69

17-gm pace

318

Best / worst

37.7 / 4.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
124.22135210106581
217.01930207215270
329.11928298405120
411.82237212118130
620.4172925210431
74.71526172014-20
811.82538285013240
937.72034280305530
1025.12036220108631
1110.31632193004260
1221.71935239304210
139.51736154115130
1414.91935186214150
1519.01728242203130
1621.01934250203300
1723.02542330205180
1816.6203321221110