Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Michael Penix Jr.

ATL

QB39 · overall #380 · tier 9 · age 26

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Projected points

92

10.3/gm

Value over replacement

-55

repl 261

Range

47–138

sd 45

Week

5.5

@ PIT

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
22.9
Pass yards / game
166
Pass TD / game
0.96
Carries / game
1.7
Rush yards / game
7
Rush TD / game
0.08
Games projected
9.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
11.8
Games of history
14
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.4
Projected plays / game
62.0
Projected pass rate
56%
OL run block
+0.08
OL pass protection
+0.66
OL continuity
82%
2TE rate
33%
3WR rate
60%
1st-down pass rate
42%
Run friendly
+0.36
Scheme creativity
-0.15
Play action / motion
18% / 65%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
43
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.45

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
PIT,CAR,GB
Window matchup
-0.65
Opponents after
NO,BAL,CHI
After matchup
+0.18
Flip edge
-0.83
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.81

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

9

Points

120.3

Per game

13.36

17-gm pace

227

Best / worst

24.0 / 3.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
124.02742298106211
25.31321135001-10
33.8183617202290
418.7202631321420
614.6203225010260
712.2213824110260
922.72237221302190
1011.01228177101-10
117.9131617500190