Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Bo Nix

DEN

QB6 · overall #105 · tier 2 · age 26

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Projected points

267

17.5/gm

Value over replacement

17

repl 261

Range

227–307

sd 40

Week

14.7

@ KC

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
33.3
Pass yards / game
241
Pass TD / game
1.50
Carries / game
4.6
Rush yards / game
19
Rush TD / game
0.20
Games projected
15.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
18.3
Games of history
34
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
33.2
Projected plays / game
62.2
Projected pass rate
58%
OL run block
+1.24
OL pass protection
+1.55
OL continuity
98%
2TE rate
23%
3WR rate
72%
1st-down pass rate
49%
Run friendly
-0.38
Scheme creativity
+0.14
Play action / motion
25% / 43%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
KC,JAX,LA
Window matchup
-0.66
Opponents after
SF,LAC,SEA
After matchup
-0.37
Flip edge
-0.28
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
10
Playoff schedule (15-17)
+0.22

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

304.8

Per game

17.93

17-gm pace

305

Best / worst

40.0 / 5.8

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
16.82540176128180
220.22230206313200
313.41425153108330
425.7294232621671
517.92439242103220
613.41930174105240
740.02750279205482
823.81929247411-10
918.51837173213360
105.81628150125-20
1112.6243729500380
1316.42945321112160
1416.03138212003151
1529.12334302407100
1615.22847352114110
1719.52638182119421
1810.51423141008490