Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Drake Maye

NE

QB7 · overall #99 · tier 3 · age 23

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Projected points

266

17.7/gm

Value over replacement

20

repl 261

Range

231–300

sd 34

Week

14.9

@ SEA

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
31.4
Pass yards / game
227
Pass TD / game
1.57
Carries / game
5.6
Rush yards / game
25
Rush TD / game
0.20
Games projected
15.0
Observed pts/gm (history)
18.3
Games of history
30
Age multiplier
1.038
Usage carryover
1.00

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.3
Projected plays / game
59.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
-0.47
OL pass protection
-0.48
OL continuity
73%
2TE rate
31%
3WR rate
57%
1st-down pass rate
43%
Run friendly
+0.10
Scheme creativity
-0.59
Play action / motion
21% / 48%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
SEA,PIT,JAX
Window matchup
-0.42
Opponents after
BUF,LV,NYJ
After matchup
+0.26
Flip edge
-0.67
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
11
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.27

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

17

Points

351.5

Per game

20.67

17-gm pace

351

Best / worst

32.4 / 12.1

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
115.33046287114110
226.319232302010311
319.22837268217450
423.21417203203111
512.12230273003120
627.21826261309280
723.12123222208620
826.31824282317500
916.41929259218200
1018.11631270217130
1115.4253428110420
1216.02235294115220
1320.52431282206120
1520.51423155014432
1623.731443802110250
1732.41921256503220
1815.71418191105410