Fourth & Inches

2026 pre · wk 1 · half ppr · 61 games lined

Inches matter. Both in life and in Fantasy Football.

QB

Kenny Pickett

CAR

QB43 · overall #600 · tier 9 · age 28

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Projected points

82

8.0/gm

Value over replacement

-86

repl 261

Range

48–116

sd 34

Week

5.1

vs CHI

Projected usage

opportunity, before efficiency

Pass attempts / game
19.8
Pass yards / game
134
Pass TD / game
0.71
Carries / game
1.5
Rush yards / game
6
Rush TD / game
0.06
Games projected
10.3
Observed pts/gm (history)
7.0
Games of history
36
Age multiplier
1.012
Usage carryover
0.89

Team context

what scales this projection

Neutral sec / play
34.7
Projected plays / game
59.9
Projected pass rate
57%
OL run block
+0.31
OL pass protection
+0.20
OL continuity
60%
2TE rate
25%
3WR rate
73%
1st-down pass rate
40%
Run friendly
+0.67
Scheme creativity
-0.69
Play action / motion
21% / 40%

Situation

ambiguity widens the projection range

Label
settled
Ambiguity score
24
Effective contributors
Top player's share
New play-caller
no
Variance multiplier
1.34

Trade window

schedule-driven buy / sell timing

Action
avoid
Window weeks
1-3
Window opponents
CHI,ATL,CLE
Window matchup
-0.37
Opponents after
DET,PHI
After matchup
-0.20
Flip edge
-0.16
Buy basis
season average
Bye week
5
Playoff schedule (15-17)
-0.11

2025 game log

full season · Half PPR

Games

6

Points

7.7

Per game

1.29

17-gm pace

22

Best / worst

8.5 / -1.7

Pace extrapolates the selected weeks over 17 games. It is what that stretch was worth, not a projection — no availability, matchup or regression adjustment is applied.

WkPtsCmpAttPa YdsPa TDINTRu AttRu YdsRu TD
7-1.722800100
100.001000000
148.58119710160
151.315256401270
170.6221600000
18-1.014301190