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Projected opportunity and the team context multiplying it. Opportunity and efficiency are shown separately because that is how the projection is built — a fast team with a poor line gives more chances at lower value per chance.
| # | Player | Pos | Tgt/G | Car/G | Rec/G | RecYd/G | RushYd/G | Pts/G | Prior obs | Age× | Carryover | Team plays | OL run | OL pass | Var× | Gms | 2025 EPA/tgt | 2025 succ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBrideARI | TE | 9.6 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 70 | 0 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 62.2 | -0.14 | -0.29 | 1.29 | 62 | +0.43 | 60% |
| 2 | Colston LovelandCHI | TE | 7.0 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 54 | 0 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 62.5 | +1.36 | +1.05 | 1.35 | 16 | +0.46 | 55% |
| 3 | Tyler WarrenIND | TE | 7.5 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 54 | 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 61.8 | +0.69 | +0.76 | 1.17 | 17 | +0.14 | 48% |
| 4 | Sam LaPortaDET | TE | 6.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 54 | 0 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 62.4 | +0.69 | +0.61 | 1.74 | 42 | +0.74 | 67% |
| 5 | Brock BowersLV | TE | 9.0 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 65 | 0 | 12.3 | 15.1 | 1.06 | 0.90 | 60.9 | -1.08 | -0.32 | 2.04 | 29 | +0.27 | 56% |
| 6 | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE | TE | 7.3 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 47 | 0 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 1.06 | 0.90 | 61.0 | -1.18 | -1.79 | 1.88 | 16 | +0.01 | 42% |
| 7 | George KittleSF | TE | 5.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 47 | 0 | 9.3 | 14.7 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 59.5 | -0.01 | -0.56 | 1.47 | 57 | +0.65 | 68% |
| 8 | Tucker KraftGB | TE | 5.4 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 47 | 0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 60.5 | -0.62 | -0.44 | 1.69 | 39 | +0.89 | 64% |
| 9 | Kyle PittsATL | TE | 6.7 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 49 | -0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 61.7 | +0.05 | +0.17 | 1.14 | 61 | +0.21 | 55% |
| 10 | Travis KelceKC | TE | 6.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 44 | 0 | 8.1 | 12.9 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 63.2 | +0.13 | -0.04 | 1.22 | 65 | +0.37 | 59% |
| 11 | Jake FergusonDAL | TE | 5.7 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 37 | 0 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 64.1 | +0.24 | +0.09 | 1.24 | 59 | +0.19 | 48% |
| 12 | Oronde Gadsden IILAC | TE | 5.5 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 44 | 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 61.1 | +0.45 | +0.57 | 1.55 | 15 | +0.27 | 64% |
| 13 | Kenyon SadiqNYJ | TE | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 40 | 0 | 7.2 | – | 1.00 | 1.00 | 60.9 | -0.17 | -0.10 | 1.55 | 0 | – | – |
| 14 | Dalton SchultzHOU | TE | 5.8 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 38 | 0 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 61.9 | -1.37 | -1.19 | 1.16 | 64 | +0.37 | 58% |
| 15 | Mark AndrewsBAL | TE | 4.9 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 37 | 1 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 60.2 | +0.50 | -0.17 | 2.21 | 59 | +0.02 | 50% |
| 16 | Dalton KincaidBUF | TE | 5.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 43 | 0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 61.1 | +1.32 | +1.30 | 1.62 | 41 | +0.82 | 66% |
| 17 | Juwan JohnsonNO | TE | 5.0 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 37 | 0 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 62.8 | -0.21 | +0.11 | 1.29 | 61 | +0.35 | 56% |
| 18 | Hunter HenryNE | TE | 4.9 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 36 | 0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 60.1 | -0.38 | -0.39 | 1.21 | 62 | +0.42 | 59% |
| 19 | Cade OttonTB | TE | 5.4 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 38 | -0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 62.1 | +0.87 | +1.31 | 1.13 | 62 | +0.04 | 49% |
| 20 | Brenton StrangeJAX | TE | 5.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 37 | 0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 61.3 | -0.72 | -0.20 | 1.53 | 33 | +0.46 | 60% |
| 21 | Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE | 4.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 34 | 0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 62.6 | +0.24 | -0.01 | 2.08 | 55 | +0.15 | 53% |
| 22 | Pat FreiermuthPIT | TE | 4.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 35 | 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 1.01 | 0.90 | 61.4 | -0.51 | +0.02 | 2.30 | 58 | +0.32 | 54% |
| 23 | AJ BarnerSEA | TE | 4.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 29 | 0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 61.2 | +0.01 | +0.28 | 1.32 | 32 | +0.46 | 67% |
| 24 | T.J. HockensonMIN | TE | 5.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 39 | 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 61.1 | -0.05 | +0.10 | 1.29 | 57 | +0.21 | 50% |
| 25 | Evan EngramDEN | TE | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 36 | 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 62.2 | +1.17 | +1.48 | 1.35 | 59 | -0.03 | 37% |
| 26 | Zach ErtzPHI | TE | 5.1 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 35 | 0 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 0.80 | 0.89 | 61.3 | +1.28 | +1.10 | 1.72 | 47 | +0.16 | 51% |
| 27 | Dallas GoedertPHI | TE | 4.9 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 39 | 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 61.3 | +1.28 | +1.10 | 1.67 | 51 | +0.43 | 56% |
| 28 | Chig OkonkwoWAS | TE | 5.1 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 35 | 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 60.9 | -0.49 | -0.84 | 2.08 | 66 | +0.16 | 44% |
| 29 | Greg DulcichMIA | TE | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 35 | -0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 60.1 | -1.09 | -0.47 | 2.55 | 25 | +0.52 | 59% |
2025 usage and efficiency
what happened last season — none of this feeds the projection above
| Player | Routes | Tgt | YPRR | TPRR | Tgt share | 1st read | Designed | Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideARI | 746 | 170 | 1.66 | 0.228 | 21% | 66% | 15% | 3.1 |
| Colston LovelandCHI | 427 | 109 | 1.69 | 0.194 | 12% | 67% | 0% | 3.7 |
| Tyler WarrenIND | 571 | 114 | 1.43 | 0.200 | 18% | 72% | 11% | 3.3 |
| Sam LaPortaDET | 287 | 49 | 1.70 | 0.171 | 8% | 57% | 4% | 3.4 |
| Brock BowersLV | 432 | 87 | 1.58 | 0.201 | 14% | 82% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr.CLE | 491 | 108 | 1.49 | 0.220 | 16% | 61% | 7% | 2.9 |
| George KittleSF | 327 | 71 | 1.92 | 0.211 | 11% | 65% | 12% | 3.6 |
| Tucker KraftGB | 251 | 44 | 1.95 | 0.175 | 8% | 59% | 9% | – |
| Kyle PittsATL | 588 | 119 | 1.58 | 0.202 | 19% | 57% | 9% | 3.5 |
| Travis KelceKC | 636 | 109 | 1.34 | 0.171 | 15% | 58% | 6% | 3.2 |
| Jake FergusonDAL | 577 | 103 | 1.04 | 0.178 | 14% | 56% | 7% | 3.3 |
| Oronde Gadsden IILAC | 438 | 72 | 1.52 | 0.158 | 10% | 59% | 1% | 3.2 |
| Dalton SchultzHOU | 586 | 113 | 1.33 | 0.183 | 15% | 68% | 1% | 3.8 |
| Mark AndrewsBAL | 388 | 70 | 1.09 | 0.180 | 13% | 64% | 0% | 2.9 |
| Dalton KincaidBUF | 219 | 61 | 2.61 | 0.228 | 8% | 52% | 12% | 3.4 |
| Juwan JohnsonNO | 586 | 102 | 1.52 | 0.174 | 14% | 72% | 1% | 3.6 |
| Hunter HenryNE | 545 | 103 | 1.41 | 0.160 | 13% | 68% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Cade OttonTB | 614 | 82 | 0.93 | 0.134 | 12% | 61% | 5% | 3.5 |
| Brenton StrangeJAX | 358 | 65 | 1.51 | 0.168 | 9% | 55% | 7% | 3.9 |
| Isaiah LikelyNYG | 267 | 36 | 1.15 | 0.135 | 7% | 56% | 6% | – |
| Pat FreiermuthPIT | 357 | 57 | 1.36 | 0.151 | 9% | 52% | 15% | 3.2 |
| AJ BarnerSEA | 455 | 75 | 1.14 | 0.149 | 12% | 59% | 3% | 4.1 |
| T.J. HockensonMIN | 474 | 66 | 0.92 | 0.139 | 11% | 45% | 9% | 3.8 |
| Evan EngramDEN | 389 | 83 | 1.19 | 0.198 | 11% | 36% | 13% | 4.6 |
| Zach ErtzPHI | 403 | 73 | 1.26 | 0.181 | 12% | 68% | 1% | 2.7 |
| Dallas GoedertPHI | 472 | 89 | 1.25 | 0.174 | 14% | 61% | 10% | 3.4 |
| Chig OkonkwoWAS | 480 | 79 | 1.17 | 0.165 | 12% | 56% | 25% | 3.9 |
| Greg DulcichMIA | 150 | 34 | 2.23 | 0.227 | 6% | 65% | 9% | – |
A route here is being on the field for a pass play, which counts a receiver who stayed in to block — so this runs slightly generous against PFF's charted version. First read and designed come from FTN charting and start in 2022. Separation is Next Gen Stats. Receiver WIN RATE is proprietary and is not available.